Then, if the PDP was enjoying its rival’s discomfiture over its glaring misreading of the feelings of the majority of Nigerians, the ruling party soon delivered its own faux paus when it sought to influence the outcome of the election of a new chairman for the Nigerian Governors Forum, NGF. The Presidency is believed to be meddling it the affairs of the quite powerful NGF, and is determined to ensure that Rivers State Governor, Chibuike Ameachi does not return as chairman of NGF.

Yet it is the very vocal opposition, the merging parties forming the All Progressive Congress, better known as APC that has got it wrong-- very wrong this time—by swimming against the tide of public opinion which has applauded the declaration of a state of emergency in three states of the country—Yobe, Adamawa, and Borno. These are states where the deadly terrorist group, Boko Haram has made both home and the major theatres of its murderous attacks on innocent Nigerians.

Just days to the President’s public broadcast, the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN group of APC had issued a public statement stating its opposition to the state of emergency. And even when the majority of Nigerians began to express their support and approval of the tough action taken by the President, the ACN found itself on a wrong footing. And as it turned out it was too late in the day, for the party to withdraw its opposition to the popular stance of the President.

The political group was forced to eat cold dinner when the State of Emergency bill was finally debated in the National Assembly and the majority of members favoured an approval of the President’s action.”The ACN legislators found themselves in a situation where they had to go with the mood of both the National Assembly and majority of Nigerians or find themselves completely alienated,” says one political analyst.ACN senator, Gbenga Ashafa who spoke to journalists over the vote for the State of emergency admitted that they had to go with the mood of the nation despite the party’s initial opposition to the government’s action.

Howbeit, the ACN appears to be paying a heavy price of its wrong move as many Nigerians have began to express doubt about the APC’s political agenda, wondering if the emerging opposition party was the wonderful alternative to the ruling PDP, that they have been looking for. This thinking was further reinforced by one of the APC’s leaders, General Muhammadu Buhari who also spoke publicly against the state of emergency.

Buhari in an interview with the BBC’s Hausa Service which is quite popular in the North of the country compared the Boko Haram insurgency with that of the Niger Delta Militants who have been granted amnesty to lay down their arms. But many Nigerians were angry with the soldier-turned-politician over this view. On Facebook, the retired general was severely tongue-lashed for what is seen as his distasteful comparison of the two groups. According to them, whereas, Niger Delta militants were fighting for economic freedom, decades of economic neglect and environmental Pollution from oil prospecting in the Niger Delta which were well known, the causes for which Boko Haram has been killing innocent Nigerians, mostly targeting Christians and southerners are perceived as rather idealistic and extremist. The talk of establishing an Islamic state by the terror group is neither here nor there ,since Nigeria has been a multi-religious and multi-ethnic country from day one, say several Nigerian Facebook commentators.

On the other hand, the NGF debacle has provided fodder for some anti-Jonathan persuasion. The result of the recent NGF has been a case-of-the more-you-look –the less –you –see. Up till now,it is yet unclear who won the NGF chairmanship election. There are three contenders. One, Governor Amaechi quickly declared victor on the night of the election. And by the following day, a paid advert had appeared in some national newspapers in which he thanked his colleagues for choosing him and also pledged his loyalty to the President. Ameachi was reported to have won with 19 votes, as against 16 for his opponent. But as it turned out that was the easy part. Before the end of the day, a new contender had emerged as Plateau State governor, Jonah Jang claimed that he was the elected chairman of the NGF. Then, the fireworks began. Some governors lined up behind Amaechi, while some stood with Jang.

As days turned into weeks after the NGF election, Ondo state governor, Dr Segun Mimiko who belongs to the Labour Party claimed that no election took place. Whereas, Imo state governor, Rochas Okorocha, who is of the All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA insisted that there was an election which was won by Amaechi.

The popular opinion about the cause of the NGF crisis is 2015.The story is that Governor Amaechi is eyeing the vice presidential slot in a likely pair up with Jigawa governor, Sule Lamido for President in 2015.It is believed that this is an obvious threat to the likely reelection plan of Mr President. More so, the Governors’ Forum has become a very influential and formidable political group in recent years. The group is believed to have been able to confront the President on several critical issues and have its way. Thus, according to those who see the long hands of the Presidency in the NGF crisis, Amaechi had to be stopped at all cost in order to prevent him from using the very formidable platform of the NGF as a launch pad for the 2015 presidential contest.

So far, the drama keeps unfolding anew as Amaechi has been suspended from the PDP and he subsequently went to court which gave an injunction against further actions by the party against him. Its an uneasy calm right now over the chairman’s seat of the Governor’s forum.

Yet many Nigerians believe that the NGF drama has damaged the President’s avowed commitment to ensuring free, transparency and fair elections in the country.”If they cannot even elect a leader among themselves just 36 of them, I wonder what will happen when we have general elections”, says one disgusted Nigerian. Will the President try to influence the next presidential elections in 2015 if he senses that he is unpopular? Will his party, the PDP which has often gloated that it would remain in power for the next 50 years play by the rules of free and fair elections? This is more so in the face of serious challenge by a growing opposition group, the APC.

2015 may still be a long way off,but as Nigerian voters get more and more sophisticated, today’s political minefields may determine the fortunes of the political gladiators including the President in 2015.